It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
